Friday, November 12, 2010
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Today is different. A look at the numbers is not nearly as important as a deep look at the qualitative aspects related to your economic future. The declines faced in American finance and vital American manufacturing as well as small business is a direct result of an over-dependence on “the numbers” and why its time to look at what really makes businesses grow and profit. Qualitative factors that are not readily quantified make all the difference. The art in smart makes sense of the future.
If you are a scientist, people will assume you are smart. If you are an artist, people will assume you know nothing about science and probably are not very smart. This is not true but because science has delivered so much value over the last 50 years it has come to be a common belief. While there are plenty of “starving artists” you don’t hear the term “starving scientist” very often.
For over 50 years quantitative methods have been integral to economic success. Only an idiot would say “Don’t look at the numbers” when making a business decision. Not only look at them; model them, do sensitivity analysis with them, create algorithms and multi-factor models to predict what will happen if things change. Stress test the limits of the models so we can be sure we can achieve our objectives. Our global growth is now facing the “paralysis of analysis” and instinctively we are returning to a more qualitative perspective. And thats a good thing.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Want to destroy American Ideals of Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness? Then support the Healthcare bill. Here are ten reasons to scrap it
- ACCESS will be limited. If the legislation is passed most likely half of cardiologists over 50 will retire. At the same time we add millions to the insurance role we drive doctors out as we turn them into quasi-government employees.
- RATIONING who gets care and who doesn’t. Telling Americans they are too old, or too sick to justify the expense to potentially cure them will be a function of 132 different boards depending on the illness. By the way it is already being rationed by the way Medicare dictates what it will pay for. Research carotid artery stents - they are FDA approved, reduce costs and stroke risk dramatically but CMS won't pay for them.
- QUALITY will go down. You can’t add insureds, cut budgets, drive out Doctors and expect quality to go up.
- COST will go up - 132 new perpetual bureaucracies will have to be paid for.
- MORTALITY rates go up - when uninterested parties are responsible for who gets care and who doesn’t mortality rates have to go up.
- INNOVATION DECLINES - when there are no incentives to develop new procedures, or those procedures are going to have additional taxes (2.5% is proposed) innovation declines.
- NO TORT REFORM - should we be surprised that issues related to malpractice and other legal costs of medicine are not even addressed? Of course not given that approximately 350 members of the house are lawyers and only 14 are doctors.
- NO COST IMPACT - the legislation does not bend the cost curve, it should include ways that all agree will reduce costs, not just reallocate them.
- INCREASED DEFICITS - Higher costs, reduced innovation, higher mortality all add up to increasing deficits.
- LOSS OF INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS - this legislation represents the largest power grab in the history of the nation and it will change the fabric of the country because it touches every single citizen. Its 2,000 page start will turn into 20,000 pages of regulations.
I had lunch with Chris Cates www.catesforcongress.com this past week and suggest you consider supporting his campaign. He is a cardiologist and community leader who has decided the only way to stop the train is to jump on it and try to get to the driver (Congress). I applaud his ambition and hope we can work together to solve our healthcare and economic issues across party lines.